Osun Election 2026: Key Factors That Could Decide Adeleke, Oyebamiji, Salaam
OSOGBO — As Osun State heads to the governorship election on Saturday, August 15, 2026, the political contest has narrowed largely to three major contenders: incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Bola Oyebamiji, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate Najeem Salaam.
A total of 15 candidates are on the ballot, while about 1.9 million registered voters who collected their Permanent Voter Cards are expected to participate across the state’s 30 local government areas, 323 wards and 3,763 polling units.
The election is taking place amid heightened political tension following reports of attacks and inflammatory statements during the campaign period.
President Bola Tinubu has assured residents that adequate security has been deployed across the state and urged voters to come out and exercise their constitutional rights without fear.
Several factors could ultimately determine the outcome, including incumbency, candidates’ popularity, political alliances, grassroots structures, performance in office, federal influence, traditional rulers, local government control and the ability of each campaign to mobilise voters.
The three major contenders
Although 15 political parties are participating in the election, Adeleke, Oyebamiji and Salaam have emerged as the most prominent contenders.
Adeleke is seeking a second term on the platform of the Accord Party after leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which did not field a candidate in the election.
Oyebamiji is contesting for the APC and has received the backing of President Tinubu and several prominent political figures in the state.
Salaam, a former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, is representing the ADC and is campaigning on a 10-point agenda focused largely on workers’ welfare, electricity and economic development.
Adeleke’s strengths
As the incumbent governor, Adeleke enters the election with the advantage of controlling the state’s political machinery and using his record in office as a major campaign tool.
His administration has highlighted infrastructure development, including the construction and rehabilitation of roads across the three senatorial districts.
The governor is also believed to retain considerable support among sections of the civil service and organised labour, with the Nigeria Labour Congress, Trade Union Congress and Joint Negotiating Council reportedly backing his re-election campaign.
His support among some traditional rulers could also prove important, particularly in Osogbo and Ede.
Adeleke is also expected to benefit from the PDP’s decision not to field a candidate, as sections of the party’s structure and supporters have reportedly moved towards his Accord campaign.
Another significant development is the movement of some political associates of Senator Iyiola Omisore into the Accord Party following disagreements surrounding the APC primaries.
The governor also retains a strong base in Ede Federal Constituency, which comprises Ede North, Ede South, Egbedore and Ejigbo local government areas.
Adeleke’s challenges
Despite the advantages of incumbency, Adeleke faces criticism over some decisions taken during his administration.
Opposition parties have repeatedly criticised the dismissal of some teachers and health workers, changes involving workers in state-owned broadcasting organisations and what they describe as inadequate recruitment into the civil service.
Allegations of favouritism in recent recruitment exercises have also become part of the opposition’s campaign narrative.
The governor’s opponents have further questioned his administration’s performance in agriculture, healthcare, education, commerce and industry.
Another challenge is the decision by a political bloc associated with former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola to support the APC candidate.
Why Oyebamiji could upset Adeleke
For the APC, Bola Oyebamiji’s major advantage is the backing of the federal government and the party’s political structure.
President Tinubu has endorsed his candidacy, while several prominent political figures have also thrown their weight behind the former commissioner.
Oyebamiji has received support from federal lawmakers and political heavyweights from Osun East, including Senator Francis Fadahunsi, Wole Oke, Sanya Omirin and Taofeek Ajilesoro.
The APC candidate is also expected to benefit from the influence of some of Iyiola Omisore’s political associates, particularly around the Ile-Ife axis.
Another potentially decisive factor is the distribution of voters in Osun West. While Adeleke secured significant support from the district in the 2022 election, Oyebamiji’s emergence could alter the political equation.
Ikire Federal Constituency, comprising Irewole, Ayedaade and Isokan local government areas, has a substantial number of registered voters that could prove critical.
Oyebamiji has also positioned himself as a candidate who would govern without perceived favouritism, repeatedly using allegations of nepotism against the incumbent as part of his campaign message.
The APC campaign has reportedly established vote canvassers across all 3,763 polling units in the state as part of its mobilisation strategy.
Oyebamiji’s major weakness
The APC candidate’s biggest challenge is his association with the administration of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola, where he served.
The issue of the controversial modulated salary introduced during the administration of former Governor Rauf Aregbesola remains a sensitive subject in Osun politics.
Opponents have sought to associate Oyebamiji with the policy and argue that his involvement in the previous administration should influence voters’ decisions.
The APC will therefore have to convince voters who remain dissatisfied with aspects of the Oyetola and Aregbesola administrations that Oyebamiji represents a new direction.
Salaam and the ADC factor
Najeem Salaam brings considerable political experience to the contest.
The former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly has presented a 10-point agenda built around workers’ welfare, electricity supply and industrial development.
His connection with former Governor Rauf Aregbesola could provide access to a network of grassroots politicians who left the APC alongside the former governor.
Salaam also comes from Osun West, the same senatorial district as Adeleke and Oyebamiji, making the region one of the most closely watched battlegrounds in the election.
His support base could potentially reduce the votes available to either of the two leading contenders.
However, his association with Aregbesola could also become a liability, particularly among civil servants and pensioners who remain critical of policies implemented during Aregbesola’s tenure.
Questions have also been raised about whether the ADC possesses the statewide political structure and financial resources required to compete effectively with the APC and Accord Party.
Local government control
Control of local government structures is another important factor in the election.
The struggle between the Accord Party and APC over control of local government administration has remained a major political issue, with aspects of the dispute still before the courts.
The party that can effectively mobilise supporters at the grassroots level is likely to have an important advantage on election day.
Infrastructure and Adeleke’s record
Infrastructure is expected to play a significant role in voters’ assessment of the incumbent.
The Adeleke administration has claimed to have completed more than 300 kilometres of roads across Osun State during its first term.
The government has also highlighted road projects in Ilesa, Iwo, Ede and Ila-Orangun as examples of its infrastructure programme.
Supporters of the governor argue that the projects demonstrate tangible achievements that should earn him another term.
The opposition, however, maintains that infrastructure alone cannot determine the election and has pointed to other sectors where it believes the administration has fallen short.
Political alliances and elite support
The movement of political heavyweights between parties could also influence the outcome.
Former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola has publicly backed Oyebamiji and pledged to mobilise support for the APC candidate.
Other political figures, including former senator Olasunkanmi Akinlabi, former Secretary to the State Government Fatai Akinbade and former PDP national vice-chairman Tajudeen Oladipo, have also been associated with support for the APC candidate.
Iyiola Omisore’s influence remains particularly significant around Ile-Ife.
Although Omisore has remained an APC member, the support of political associates linked to him could strengthen Oyebamiji’s position in the area.
Traditional rulers could influence voters
Traditional rulers have also become part of the political calculations.
The Timi of Ede, Oba Adesola Lawal, has openly backed Adeleke and urged Ede residents to support the Accord Party.
The Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji, has also expressed support for the governor.
On the other hand, some traditional rulers in Irewole Federal Constituency have backed Oyebamiji.
The Oluwo of Iwo, Oba Abdurosheed Akanbi, has also openly supported the APC.
The Ooni of Ife, Oba Adeyeye Ogunwusi, has maintained a position of neutrality and continued to present the palace as a unifying institution above partisan politics.
Violence raises security concerns
The election has been preceded by reports of political violence.
In Esa-Oke, two APC members were reportedly attacked, with Oladele Ayegbo, a nephew of APC campaign Director-General Wole Oke, reported dead.
Another victim, Taiwo Oluwatobi, sustained gunshot injuries and was taken to hospital.
Police confirmed that the attack occurred on Wednesday night and said additional personnel had been deployed to the area.
The APC accused suspected Accord supporters of involvement in the attack, an allegation that has not been established as fact.
The development has heightened concerns about the security situation ahead of the election.
15,000 police officers deployed
The Nigeria Police Force has announced the deployment of about 15,000 personnel and 31 Commissioners of Police for the election.
Police helicopters and drones have also been deployed for aerial surveillance.
According to the police, tactical units, the Police Mobile Force, bomb squad and Special Protection Unit personnel will participate in the security operation.
Security agencies including the Army, Air Force, Department of State Services and Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps have also been conducting show-of-force operations across the state.
The police have announced restrictions on vehicular movement from midnight on Saturday, with exceptions for essential services, security personnel and voters travelling to polling units.
Amnesty International raises alarm over alleged incitement
Amnesty International Nigeria has also expressed concern over alleged inflammatory comments attributed to Senator Francis Fadahunsi.
The senator was accused of making remarks interpreted as a call for violence against members of the Accord Party.
Fadahunsi has denied calling for physical attacks and maintained that the viral video circulating online was edited to distort the meaning of his statement.
Amnesty International Nigeria said it would use the case to highlight the need to hold politicians accountable for inflammatory rhetoric.
Former Chief of Defence Staff, General Lucky Irabor, has similarly called for decisive action against politicians and other public figures whose comments could trigger violence.
Osun government takes Fadahunsi case to court
The Osun State Government has also approached the High Court in Osogbo seeking an order compelling the police to investigate Fadahunsi over the alleged inflammatory remarks.
The suit, filed by the state Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, Oluwole Jimi-Bada, SAN, seeks an Order of Mandamus against the Inspector-General of Police and the Osun State Commissioner of Police.
The government wants the police to investigate, preserve and authenticate the video in question and determine whether the alleged statements constitute criminal offences.
It has also asked for preventive security measures to protect candidates, party members and voters.
The state government stressed that the case was not asking the court to determine Fadahunsi’s guilt but to compel the police to carry out their statutory duties.
Obi calls for peaceful election
Former Anambra State governor and presidential candidate Peter Obi has also appealed to stakeholders to ensure a peaceful and credible election.
Obi urged INEC, security agencies, political parties, candidates and other stakeholders to remain neutral and professional.
Also Read: Adeleke Urges IGP to Arrest Osun Senator Over Alleged Threat
He called on voters to reject violence and urged politicians and their supporters not to use the election to create divisions within communities.
He also appealed to election observers and the international community to monitor the process closely.
INEC materials arrive Osogbo
Meanwhile, sensitive election materials have arrived in Osogbo ahead of Saturday’s governorship poll.
With security operations intensified and campaigns concluded, attention has now shifted to voter turnout, polling-unit mobilisation and the ability of the competing parties to protect their votes.
The deciding factors
Ultimately, the Osun election could be determined by a combination of factors rather than a single issue.
Incumbency gives Adeleke an advantage, while the federal backing enjoyed by Oyebamiji strengthens the APC’s position.
Grassroots structures, political alliances and voter mobilisation could also determine which candidate converts political support into actual votes.
The performance of the Adeleke administration, particularly its infrastructure record, will be weighed against criticisms over employment, workers’ welfare and other policies.
The influence of traditional rulers, former governors and political heavyweights could also prove decisive in key local government areas.
Above all, security and voter turnout may determine how effectively each party can translate its support base into votes.
With 15 candidates on the ballot and the three leading contenders all having significant political structures and support bases, Saturday’s election is shaping up as a closely watched contest that could redefine the political balance in Osun State.
