Nigeria Inflation May Average 15.5% in Second Half of 2026 – NESG
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected that Nigeria’s inflation will remain elevated during the second half of 2026.
According to the group’s latest economic outlook, inflation could average 15.5% in H2 2026 and across the full year.
NESG attributed the projection to several economic pressures, including insecurity in farming communities, climate-related disruptions and high transportation costs.
Why inflation could remain high in H2 2026
The group identified flooding and other climate-related challenges as potential threats to agricultural production.
Insecurity in major farming areas could also affect food supply and place further pressure on prices.
NESG said high logistics and transportation costs could add to inflationary pressures during the period.
It also pointed to election-related spending and increased seasonal demand around the festive period as possible sources of temporary cost increases.
Relatively high energy costs are another factor that could keep inflation elevated.
However, some of these pressures could be moderated by exchange rate stability, the delayed impact of tight monetary policy and favourable base effects.
NESG projects 4.2% economic growth
Despite the inflation concerns, NESG expects Nigeria’s economy to maintain its growth momentum in 2026.
In its report titled “Turning Potential into Progress,” the group projected full-year GDP growth of approximately 4.2%. Economic growth is expected to reach about 4.5% in the second half of the year.
NESG said stronger performance in the oil, manufacturing, agricultural and services sectors would support the expansion.
Oil sector expected to support growth
The oil industry is expected to remain an important driver of Nigeria’s economic growth.
NESG said higher domestic crude oil production could support the sector. Improved security conditions and the gradual implementation of upstream reforms are also expected to help.
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Increased domestic refining activity could provide another boost.
According to NESG, greater refining capacity could strengthen industrial output and reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products.
It could also improve the country’s external position.
Manufacturing outlook improves
The manufacturing sector is also expected to sustain its growth momentum as NESG said lower inflation, exchange rate stability and improved foreign exchange liquidity could ease some of the constraints facing manufacturers.
These improvements could reduce production pressures and strengthen business confidence. The group’s outlook suggests that Nigeria could record stronger economic growth despite continued inflation risks.
However, the trajectory of inflation will depend heavily on food supply, security, energy costs, exchange rate stability and broader economic conditions during the second half of 2026.
